Geographia Technica, Vol 20, Issue 1, 2025, pp. 249-262
COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF TOURISM ATTRACTIVENESS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND CROWDSOURCED DATA. CASE STUDY FOR SEVERAL TRANSYLVANIAN CITIES.
Zsolt MAGYARI-SÁSKA 
ABSTRACT: Tourism plays a crucial role in regional economic development, yet the extent to which a city transforms its tourism potential into realized visitor attraction remains an area of ongoing research. This study presents a novel methodology for assessing and comparing tourist attraction levels in 16 Romanian cities by integrating Monte Carlo simulation with crowdsourced data. It evaluates both potential and realized tourism attractiveness using five key components: (1) quantification of tourism potential using digital infrastructure data and user-generated content, (2) assessment of tourism infrastructure through accommodations and dining establishments, (3) evaluation of environmental attractiveness via satellite-derived indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), (4) probabilistic modeling of tourist behavior using Monte Carlo simulation, and (5) correlation analysis between the modeled results and actual tourism data. Findings reveal that while major cities like Cluj-Napoca and Brașov dominate in absolute attractiveness, smaller towns such as Gheorgheni and Odorheiu Secuiesc show untapped tourism potential when adjusted for population size. The study confirms that crowdsourced data align well with traditional tourism indicators and suggests that integrating computational models enhances tourism assessments. Future research should incorporate pricing factors and test the methodology in other regions. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners, supporting data-driven tourism development strategies.
Keywords: tourism attractiveness, local development, modeling, destination competitiveness, scenario simulation
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