Geographia Technica, Vol 20, Issue 1, 2025, pp. 263-280
PREDICTING OF LAND COVER CHANGES UNTIL 2030 AND ASSESSING SUSTAINABILITY STATUS IN THE MANDEH REGION, INDONESIA
FEBRIANDI 
, Siti FATIMAH , TRIYATNO , Dedi HERMON , Aprizon PUTRA , Herdiana MUTMAINAH , Taslim ARIFIN , Rudhy AKHWADY
ABSTRACT: This study aims to analyze land cover dynamics and evaluate the sustainability status of marine tourism in the Mandeh region. Despite its significant tourism potential, the region faces ecological and socio-economic challenges. This research integrates land cover change analysis with sustainability assessments to provide a foundation for policy recommendations and strategic development approaches. A descriptive research approach was employed, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative data were gathered through field observations, while quantitative data were analyzed using remote sensing to assess land cover changes and sustainability status. The study applied purposive sampling for data selection and utilized supervised classification with the Maximum Likelihood method to analyze land cover changes. Additionally, the Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) method, specifically the Rapid Appraisal of the Mandeh Region (Rap-MR), was used to evaluate sustainability across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The results indicate significant land cover transformations in the Mandeh region from 2020 to 2030. Water Bodies (WB) remain dominant but exhibit a slight decline due to sedimentation and climate change. Secondary Forest (SF) and Primary Forest (PF) are expected to decrease, mainly due to agricultural expansion and infrastructure development. Mangroves (Ms) and Mixed Gardens (MG) are also projected to shrink, reflecting conservation challenges. Conversely, Built-up Land (BuL) and Palm Plantations (PP) are anticipated to expand, driven by tourism and economic growth. Land cover classification achieved high accuracy, with an overall accuracy rate exceeding 87%. The sustainability analysis highlights economic benefits from tourism but reveals conflicts in resource utilization. The economic dimension shows a need for infrastructure investment and revenue optimization, while the social dimension emphasizes education and disaster preparedness. The environmental dimension calls for stricter conservation policies and land-use planning. In conclusion, the Mandeh region requires a balanced approach to development, integrating economic growth with environmental sustainability. Policy interventions should focus on reforestation, controlled urban expansion, and sustainable tourism management to ensure long-term ecological and socio-economic stability.
Keywords: Land cover, Sustainability, Marine tourism, Multi-dimensional scaling, Mandeh region.
Full article here