USING GIS AND STATISTICAL METHODS TO DETECT THE MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON EGYPT: 1960-2000

Mohammed Ahmed Abdelghany NASEF

ABSTRACT: Times series of Egypt for 24 stations were investigated for multi-decadal variability for temperature trends over the period 1960-2000. One-Way ANOVA analysis was applied to assess whether there is any statistically significant differences between the means of temperature at the decadal scales. Annual trends are assessed by means of the linear trend analysis by calculating the least squares fit for a line multiplied by 10 gives the change per decade and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was applied to detect the trends. The spatial interpolation by universal kriging method was applied by ArcGIS software to generate the temperature surface for each decade to show the spatial variability between the decades and the spatial variability to temperature trends were detected by symbology process in ArcGIS software. For the observation period (1960-2000) upward trends were shown for mean and minimum temperature and downward trends for maximum temperature, and Egypt showed relatively disparate between the means of decades, and the first decade was the coolest and the fourth decade was the warmest for all temperature variables. The southern part has clear upward trend than the other parts of Egypt in all variables of temperature.

Keywords: Time series, Egypt, temperature trends, ArcGIS.

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