A PROTOTYPE MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE LOCATION OF FOREST DAMAGE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES

Krista Linn MERRY, Pete BETTINGER, Jeff HEPINSTALL-CYMERMAN

ABSTRACT: The potential impact of tropical cyclones on forests varies due to forest and land conditions, along with recent management and weather activity, thus it is difficult to predict. To understand the potential damage to forests of the southern United States from a severe tropical cyclone several factors should be considered, including the forest's proximity to damaging winds and exposure along stand edges. A prototype landscape model was developed to relate tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere, with counter-clockwise wind rotations, to the potential deposition of tree debris onto roads or utility rights-of-way. The model is based on wind speed, wind direction, storm direction, tree heights, and the juxtaposition of forests to stand boundaries, open areas, roads, and utility rights-of-way. The purpose of the model is to provide opportunities for land managers to visualize the potential location of forest damage and inform the development of debris removal and recovery plans. In addition, the model can facilitate the development of forest damage scenarios based on varying characteristics of tropical cyclones. We demonstrate the application of the model on Fort Stewart, Georgia.

Keywords: Prototype model, forest damage, wind speed, tropical cyclones.

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