Geographia Technica, Vol 16, Issue 2, 2021, pp. 19-28
ASSESSMENT OF THE BLACK SEA SHELF ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY WITH MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION METHOD
Viktor KOMORIN 
ABSTRACT: The system analysis approach has been used for assessment of the sustainability of the marine shelf ecosystem with the method of mathematical modeling on the example of the north-western shelf of the Black Sea, as the most vulnerable part of the sea to the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. Based on numerical experiments, an analysis of ecosystem risk in dynamic phase space was performed. Results have shown that the ecosystem risk of the Black Sea shelf zone has fluctuated around baseline value over the last decade under the existing influences of natural and anthropogenic factors, but the system approaches an unstable state with an increase of the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors.
Keywords: system analysis, ecosystem risk, marine ecosystem, mathematical modeling, ecosystem stability, Black Sea.
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