Geographia Technica, Vol 21, Issue 1, 2026, pp. 31-45
URBAN LATENT TRANSITION INDEX (ULTI): MAPPING VACANT LAND TRANSFORMATION POTENTIAL IN THE GUATEMALA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA
Jose Luis ARGUETA MAYORGA 
, Mayra Virginia CARVAJAL CASTILLO , Mayra Virginia CASTILLO MONTES , Walter Arnoldo BARDALES ESPINOZA
ABSTRACT: The Urban Latent Transition Index (ULTI) is a novel spatial tool designed to identify and classify vacant land within the Guatemala City Metropolitan Area based on their potential for urban transformation. Moving beyond traditional approaches that often prioritize central areas, ULTI incorporates accessibility, land price, land cover, and traffic intensity into a composite index, applying K-Means clustering to reveal spatial patterns of latent transition. The results demonstrate that while central zones with higher land value and greater connectivity exhibit strong transformation potential, several peripheral areas also emerge as active transition zones with distinct behavioral profiles. This differentiation underscores the heterogeneous nature of urban change across the metropolitan landscape. By capturing these varied dynamics, ULTI redefines urban vacancy as a latent opportunity for sustainable and inclusive planning; especially in fragmented contexts of developing countries where data infrastructure is limited.
Keywords: Urban Transformation; Vacant Land; Latent Transition Index (ULTI); Spatial Analysis; Geostatistics.
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