Geographia Technica, Vol 22, Issue 1, 2027, pp. 35-43
A SPATIAL SCENARIO MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE VILLAGE FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE PELANGAI WATERSHED, PESISIR SELATAN REGENCY, WEST SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Ikhwan IKHWAN 
, Triyatno TRIYATNO , Febriandi FEBRIANDI , Dian Adhetya ARIF
ABSTRACT: Village forest management requires spatially explicit information on where forest change may occur and how strongly individual villages may be affected. This study develops a spatial scenario framework for the Pelangai Watershed, West Sumatra, with three objectives, namely 1) to model the 2024 Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) baseline and the 2034 and 2044 scenarios using the Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model; 2) to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of projected LULC and village-forest change; and 3) to identify spatial priorities for monitoring and sustainable village-forest management. Landsat 8 imagery from 2015 and 2020, terrain, accessibility variables, and village boundaries were integrated in the spatial analysis. The scenarios indicate declines in primary, secondary, and village forest, accompanied by expansion of mixed-fruit orchards and oil-palm plantations. The largest projected village-forest losses occur in Pelangai Kaciak and Pelangai Gadang, especially during 2024-2034. Area Under the Curve values of 0.7369-0.7438 indicate moderate internal discrimination. Because independent future reference maps were unavailable, the 2034 and 2044 outputs are interpreted as comparative planning scenarios rather than validated forecasts. The findings support targeted monitoring of forest-agriculture interfaces and protection of remaining forest in the most affected villages.
Keywords: Spatial scenarios; LULC; CA-Markov; Village Forest; Sustainable Forest Management.
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