MICRO-SCALE GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT. CASE STUDY: MOUNTAINOUS AND SUB-CARPATHIAN AREA OF IALOMITA HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN

Ioan IANOS, Alexandru I. PETRISOR

ABSTRACT: Researches concerning territorial differentiation of the level of development usually focus on the macro-scale (counties and regions). This study employs similar analyses at the micro-scale level using administrative-territorial units, i.e. circa 40 communes covering the mountainous and sub-Carpathian space of an average sized hydrographic basin. The algorithm uses data consisting of selected indicators referring to the density of population, its dynamics and migratory increase, population aged over 65, natality, unemployment, share of population working in agriculture, number of people who completed high school education, the number of physicians per 1000 people, and inhabited area per person (square meters). Data are analyzed using factor analysis to build an aggregated index of development. Consequently, spatial prediction via ordinary kriging is used to determine its spatial distribution. The results indicate that there are two ‘rich’ zones, one in the mountainous region and another adjacent to the plain area, while the poorer ones range in between. Their spatial distribution is perturbed by major communication routes and differentiated accessibility.

Keywords: Factor analysis, kriging, GIS, index of development, modeling.

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